A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
